Analyses of available data on international migration are becoming increasingly important in demographic projections year after year in the age of human mobility. As Europe experienced an unprecedented mass inflow of refugees and asylum seekers in 2015 since World War II, research on the demographic trends of refugees’ main countries of origin has also become important. To provide relevant information for this debate, the paper identifies the demographic tendencies of the six main countries of origin in Asia and Africa –Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia, Nigeria, and Eritrea – for the EU’s 28 member states by the number of asylum applicants between 2008 and 2016. First, basic demographic indicators (e.g. total fertility rate [TFR] and life expectancy) of these six countries are analysed. Then, the changing share of the young (15–19) and retiring (55–59) male age groups –referred to as the demographic war index (DWI) – in these six countries and major regions of the world are compared. Finally, by examining the spatial distribution of the global refugee population and armed conflicts, the research aims to reveal the relevance of the DWI.


The Hungarian research of Marcell Farkas and Zoltán Dövényi can be found here